Stoke-on-Trent Property Market

Do We Have the Right Sort of Stoke-on-Trent

Homes For the 21^st Century?

Would it surprise you to know that in some parts of Stoke-on-Trent, predominantly prosperous areas with high proportions of mature residents, the housing crisis is not one of supply so much as dispersal of that supply? Theoretically, in Stoke-on-Trent there are more than enough bedrooms for everyone - it’s just they are disproportionately spread among the population, with some better-off and more mature households living in large Stoke-on-Trent homes with many spare bedrooms, and some younger Stoke-on-Trent families being over crowded.

Yet it is not the fault of these well-off mature residents that this is the current situation. Let’s be frank, Stoke-on-Trent doesn’t have enough housing full stop (otherwise we wouldn’t have the large Council House waiting list and all the younger generations renting instead of buying), but up until now it hasn't been clear that Stoke-on-Trent actually also has the wrong types of properties.

We're not building the smaller homes in Stoke-on-Trent that are needed for the starter homes and we aren’t building enough bungalows for the older generations, so they can be released from their larger Stoke-on-Trent homes, thus allowing those growing Stoke-on-Trent families to move up the ladder.  

Looking at the stats for Stoke-on-Trent, and ST1 in particular...

 

When I compared Stoke-on-Trent (ST1) with the regional stats of the ST postcode, the locality has proportionally 98.1% more terraced/town houses, yet 72.4% less detached. Looking nationally, Stoke-on-Trent (ST1) has proportionally 99.1% more terraced/town houses and proportionally 67.6% less detached.

 

I am finding that there has been a shortage of smaller townhouses and smaller apartments being built in Stoke-on-Trent over the last 20 years, because most of the new builds in the last couple of decades seem to have been either large executive houses or the apartments that have been built were of the larger (and posher) variety, even though demand for households (as life styles have changed in the 21^st Century) have been more towards the lower to middle sized households.

 

The builders do want to build, but there's a deficiency of building land in Stoke-on-Trent, and if there's a shortage of building land, then of course new homes builders build whatever gives them the biggest profit. The properties that give them the largest profit are the biggest and most expensive properties and they certainly are not bungalows as they take up too much land. So who can blame them?

 

Yet would it surprise you to know that it’s not a lack of space (look at all the green you see when flying over the UK), it’s the planning system. Green belts must be observed, but only 1.2% (yes 1.2% - that isn’t a typo) is built on in this country as a whole with homes - we need the planners to release more land (and then force/encourage builders to build on it - not sit on it). Another problem is that of the smaller new homes that have been built, most of them have been snapped up for renting, not owning.

 

So, what’s the answer? Build more Council houses? Yes, sounds great but the local authority haven’t enough money to cut the grass verges, let alone spend billions on new homes in Stoke-on-Trent. The Government did relax the planning laws a few years ago, for example for changing office space into residential use, yet they could do more as currently new homes builders have no incentive to build inexpensive homes or bungalows that the system needs to make a difference.

 

So, what does this mean for Stoke-on-Trent homeowners and Stoke-on-Trent landlords?

 

Changing the dynamics of the Stoke-on-Trent, regional and national property market will only change in decades, not years.  The simple fact is we are living longer, and we need 240,000 to 250,000 houses a year to stand still with demand, let alone start to eat into 30 years of under building where the average has been just under 170,000 households a year.

 

That means, today as a country, we have a pent-up demand of 2.25m additional households and we need to build a further 4.2m households on top of that figure for population growth between 2019 and 2039. So, irrespective of whether we have short term blip in the property market in the next 12/18 months, investing in property is, and always will be, a great investment as demand will always outstrip supply.

 

Stoke on Trent House Prices Up 1.7% in a Year

What does that mean for local Landlords and Homeowners?

The balancing act of being a Stoke on Trent Buy To Let landlord is something many do well at. Talking to numerous Stoke on Trent landlords, they are very aware of their tenants’ capability to pay the rent and their own need to raise rents on their rental properties.  Despite the ‘perceived ‘dark clouds of Brexit, evidence suggests many landlords feel more confident than they were in the Summer and Autumn of 2018 about aiming to push rents higher on their Stoke on Trent Buy To Let properties.

Looking at the data for the last 7 years, this shows that throughout the Summer months, the rents new tenants have had to pay on move in have increased at a higher rate than during the colder months of Winter.  This is because the Summer months are normally a time when renters like to move, meaning demand increases for rental properties yet supply remains pretty ridged.

Yet the Winter stats buck that trend and this is great news.

Rents in Stoke on Trent on average for new tenants moving in have risen 0.6% for the month, taking overall annual Stoke on Trent rents 2.8% higher for the year

However, several Stoke on Trent landlords have expressed their apprehension about a slowing of the housing market in Stoke on Trent and I believe, based on this new evidence, they may be overstated.  Before we get the bubbly out though, the other part of investing in property is what is happening to capital values (which will also be of interest to all the homeowners in Stoke on Trent as well as the Stoke on Trent Buy To let landlords).   I believe the Stoke on Trent property market has been trying to find some form of balance since the New Year.   According to the Land Registry….

Property Values in Stoke on Trent are 1.7% higher than they were 12 months ago

Yet, these figures reflect the sales of Stoke on Trent properties that took place in the early Spring of 2018 and exchanged and completed during the Summer months of last year.

The reality is the number of properties that are on the market in Stoke on Trent today has risen by 12% since the Spring

and that will have a dampening effect on the property market.  As tenants have had less choice, buyers now have more choice .. and that will temper Stoke on Trent property prices as we head into the middle of 2019.

Be you a Stoke on Trent landlord or Stoke on Trent homeowner, if you are preparing to sell your Stoke on Trent property in 2019, it’s important, especially with the rise in the number of properties on the market, that you are pricing your property realistically when you bring it to the market.  With the likes of Rightmove, Zoopla and OnTheMarket on everybody’s mobile phones and laptops, buyers have access to every property on the market and they will compare and contrast your home with other properties like yours – and will more than likely dismiss your property rather than view it.

To all the Stoke on Trent homeowners that aren’t planning to sell though – this talk of price changes is only on paper profit or loss.  To those that are moving .. most people that sell, are buyers as well, so as you might not get as much for yours, the one you will want to buy won’t be as much.  Look at the deal as a whole, the difference between what you sell yours for and what you buy at.  Finally, all the Stoke on Trent landlords – keep your eye’s peeled – I have a feeling there may be some decent Stoke on Trent buy to let deals to be had in the coming months.