Putting aside the politics for one
second, the simple fact is now Article 50 has been triggered, we have two years
to make a deal with the EU; otherwise it will be a ‘hard Brexit’. Now you might
not think a hard Brexit will affect you in your home in Stoke-on-Trent ... but
nothing could be further from the truth.
Of the 246,075 people who are
resident in the Stoke-on-Trent City Council area, 225,574 were born in the UK, 2,239
were born in EU countries from West Europe and 2,750 were born in EU countries
from the former Soviet States in East Europe (the rest coming from other
countries around the world).
The rights of these EU citizens living in the Stoke-on-Trent
area are not guaranteed and will now be part of the negotiation with Europe. It
is true a lot of our EU next door neighbours in Stoke-on-Trent will have
acquired rights relating to the right to live, to work, to own a business, to
possess a property, the right to access health and education services and the
right to remain in a UK after retirement… yet those acquired rights are up for
negotiation in the next two years.
So, what would a hard Brexit do to the Stoke-on-Trent
property market?
Well a hard Brexit could mean the nuclear option when it
came to the Stoke-on-Trent housing market. It could mean that every EU citizen
would have to leave the UK.
In the Stoke-on-Trent City area, 1,157 of the 2,239 Western European EU citizens own
their own home and (so they would all need to be sold) and 1,570 of the 2,750 Eastern
European EU citizens rent a property, so again all those rental properties
would all come on the market at the same time.
Hard Brexit and mass EU Migration would mean c. 1,300
properties being dumped onto the housing market in a short period of time, meaning
there would be a massive drop in Stoke-on-Trent property values and rents,
causing negative equity for thousands of Stoke-on-Trent homeowners and many
buy-to-let landlords would be out of pocket.
While there is no certainty as to what the future will hold,
both UK expats in the EU and EU citizens in the UK rights will no longer be
guaranteed and will be subject to bilateral renegotiation.
All I ask is that the politicians are sensible with each
other in the negotiations. A lot of the success of the Stoke-on-Trent (and UK)
property market has been built on high levels of homeownership and more
recently in the last 10/15 years, a growth of the rental sector with lots of
demand from Eastern Europeans coming to Stoke-on-Trent (and the surrounding
area) to get work and provide for their families. Many Stoke-on-Trent people
have invested their life savings into buying a buy to let property.
Much will depend on what is politically realistic.
Unilateral knee-jerk reactions and measures caused by a hard Brexit would not
only likely cause major disruption or suffering to the 3 million EU citizens
living in the UK, but also everyone who owns property in the UK ... politics
aside - a hard Brexit is in no one’s interests.
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