Stoke-on-Trent rents rise by 14.8% since 2005

The Stoke-on-Trent Property Market is a very interesting animal and has been particularly fascinating over the last 12 years when we consider what has happened to Stoke-on-Trent rents and house prices.

There’s currently much talk of what will happen to the rental property market following Brexit. To judge that, I believe we must look what happened in the 2008/9 credit crunch (and what has happened since) to judge rationale and methodically, the possible ramifications for long-term investors in the Stoke-on-Trent property market. You see, an important, yet overlooked measure is the performance of rental income vs house prices (i.e. the resultant yields over time). In Stoke-on-Trent (as for the rest of Great Britain), notwithstanding a slight drop in 2008 and 2009, property rentals have been gradually increasing, not necessarily for all property types or in all areas. 

The income from rentals has been progressively increasing over the last 12 years. Today, they are 14.8% higher than they were at the beginning of 2005. In fact, over the last five years, the average growth has been 1.4% per annum. From a landlord’s point of view, increase in average rental income is not to be sneered at. However, the observant readers will be noting that we are ignoring an important factor – our friend inflation.

Turn the clock back to 2005, and we have a property being rented for say £900 a month and that is still being rented at £900 a month today, in Spring of 2017. While the landlord is not getting any less income, this £900 is no longer worth as much. Let me explain, in 2005, £900 may have bought a two-week 4* holiday in Italy. Yet, holidays have increased in line with inflation (which has been 38.5% since 2005), so our holiday would cost today £1,246 (£900 + 38.5% inflation = £1,246). Therefore, the landlord could no longer afford the same holiday, even though having the same amount in pound notes from their rental property.

This means when we compare rents in Stoke-on-Trent to inflation since 2005, Stoke-on-Trent landlords are worse off today, when they receive their monthly rental income, than they were in 2005 by 23.7% in real terms (rents increased by 14.8% since 2005, less the 38.5% inflation since 2005 – net affect 23.7% drop) 

However, rental income is not the only way to generate money from property as property values can increase. Although in the short term, cash flows are diminishing, many Stoke-on-Trent landlords may be content to accept that for a colossal increase in capital value.

Property values in Stoke-on-Trent have risen by 23.4% since 2005

This equates to a reasonably salubrious 1.95% per annum increase over the last 12 years. Even more interesting that this includes the 2008/9 property crash, this will make those Stoke-on-Trent landlords and investors feel a little better about the information regarding rents after inflation.

Moving forward, the prospects of making easy money on buy to let in Stoke-on-Trent have diminished, when compared to 2005. Last decade, making money from buy to let was as easy as falling off a log – but not anymore.

It would be true to say, my rental income verses property prices study does lead to noteworthy thoughts. I am often asked to look at my landlord’s rental portfolios, to ascertain the spread of their investment across their multiple properties. It’s all about judging whether what you have will meet your needs of the investment in the future. It’s the balance of capital growth and yield whilst diversifying this risk.

If you are investing in the Stoke-on-Trent property market, do your homework and do it well. While some yields may look attractive, there are properties in many areas that do not have the solid rudiments in place to sustain them. If you are looking for capital growth, you might be surprised where the hidden gems really are. Take advice, even ask your agent for a portfolio analysis like I offer my landlords. The clear majority of agents in Stoke-on-Trent will be able to give a detailed analysis of past and anticipated investment opportunity (especially the awful effect of inflation) on your portfolio. However, if they can’t help – well, you know where I am, the kettle is on!

Stoke on Trent Rents To Rise Quicker Than Stoke on Trent Property Prices In Next 5 Years

The next five years will see an interesting change in the Stoke on Trent property market. My recent research has concluded that the rent private tenants pay in Stoke on Trent will rise faster than Stoke on Trent property prices over the next five years, creating further issues to Stoke on Trent’s growing multitude of renters. In fact, my examination of statistics forecasts that ..

By 2022, Stoke on Trent rents will increase by 22%, whereas Stoke on Trent property values will only grow by 16%.

 Let me explain why I have come to those conclusions:

Over the last five years, property values in Stoke on Trent have risen by 14.5%, whilst rents have risen by 15.1%.

Throughout the last few years, and compounded in 2016, tenant demand for rental properties continued to go up whilst the Press predicted some landlords expect to reduce their portfolios in the next couple of years, meaning Stoke on Trent tenants will have fewer properties to choose from, which will push rents higher. In fact, talking to fellow property professionals in Stoke on Trent, there appears to be privation and shortage of new rental properties coming on to the Stoke on Trent lettings market.

Landlords have some intriguing challenges ahead of them in the coming years most notably in that the Tory’s have changed the taxation rules for landlords in the way buy to let properties are to be taxed. On top of that, there is the ban on letting agent fees which is still to come into force (probably in 2018). When that happened in Scotland in 2012, Scottish letting agents passed on those fees to their landlords, who in turn increased the rent they charged to their tenants.

All I would say to Theresa May and Philip Hammond is that they must be wary about indicating both red and green lights at the same time to the private rented sector. They can’t expect the armies of small private landlords to continue to house around a fifth of the population and then tax the hell out of them. They didn’t invest in buy to let as a charity or to satisfy any philanthropic urges. Something has to give – and that will be significant rent rises over the coming few years (and before anyone gives me any derogatory comments about landlords … if it wasn’t for landlords buying all these buy to let properties over the last 15 years, I am not sure where everyone would be living today – because most the Council houses were sold off in the 1980’s!).

With the challenges ahead, with the ‘B’ word (that’s budget if you wondered!), house price inflation will be tempered over the coming five years in Stoke on Trent. As I have discussed in previous articles, the number of properties on the market in Stoke on Trent remains close to historic lows, which is both good as it keeps houses prices relatively stable, yet not so good as it impedes choice for buyers… and hence why I believe property values in Stoke on Trent will only be 16% higher in five years’ time.

Whilst on the other side of the coin, with the challenges facing landlords and the significant shortage of new homes being built, Stoke on Trent people still need somewhere to live. If those people aren’t buying houses and the local authority aren’t building council houses in there thousands (because they have no money), with the average rent for a Stoke on Trent rental property currently standing at £548 per month …

Over the next five years, I predict the average rent

in Stoke on Trent will rise to £669 per month

These are interesting times. There is still money to be made in buy to let in Stoke on Trent – Stoke on Trent landlords will just need to be smarter and more savvy with their investments. If you are looking for such advice and opinion to help you meet those investment goals, one place you can find more information is the Stoke on Trent Property Blog

Stoke on Trent’s housing affordability hits a ratio of 4.15 to 1

A Stoke on Trent homeowner emailed me last week, following my article posted in the Stoke on Trent Property Blog about the change in attitude to renting by the youngsters of Stoke on Trent and how they thought it was too expensive for first time buyers to buy in Stoke on Trent.  There can be no doubt that buy to let landlords have played their part in driving up property values in Stoke on Trent (and the UK) and from that made housing a lot less affordable for the 20 and 30 somethings of Stoke on Trent.

In the email, they said they thought the plight of the first-time buyers in Stoke on Trent was like a novice tennis player, playing tennis with Andy Murray. If you played him once you will unquestionably lose and if you were to play him 100 times you would lose 100 times. That is what they thought it was like for all the 20 something’s first time buyers of Stoke on Trent going against all the buy to let landlords.

They went on and asked if the Bank of England (BoE) should be tasked to control house price inflation in the same way as the BoE controls inflation.  The BoE has a target for the annual inflation rate of the Consumer Prices Index of 2%, whilst it is also required to support the Government’s economic policy, including its objectives for growth and employment.  So, should BoE be charged with containing buy to let housing market, by possibly changing the rules on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio’s?

So, let’s look at how affordable Stoke on Trent is?  The best measure of the affordability of housing is the ratio of Stoke on Trent Property Prices to Stoke on Trent Average Wages, (the higher the ratio, the less affordable properties are).   (i.e. looking at the table below, for example in 2014, the average value of a Stoke on Trent property was 4.07 times higher than the average annual wage in Stoke on Trent.)

1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016 (EST)
2.31	2.32	2.36	3.79	4.46	4.16	3.63	3.73	4.07	4.15

This deterioration in affordability of property in Stoke on Trent over the last couple of years has been one of the reasons why the younger generation is deciding more and more to rent instead of buy their own house. 

... but it’s not the only reason.

A quick look on Money Supermarket today found 169 lenders prepared to offer 75% LTV Buy to let Mortgages and none at 85% LTV.  Lenders have self-imposed a high level of entry for buy to let landlords (i.e. putting down at least 25% of the purchase price in cash).  The BoE don’t need to meddle there!  Also, the Tories have certainly done lots to level the playing field in favour of first time buyers.  For nearly a year now, Landlords have had to pay an additional 3% in stamp duty on any buy to let purchase and over the coming four years, tax rules on landlord’s claiming mortgage interest relief will affect their pocket.  It doesn’t help that the local Authority sold off council houses in the Thatcher years and so for many on low incomes or with little capital, owning a home has simply never been an option (today or in the past).  

It’s easy to look at the headlines and blame landlords.  First time buyers have been able to access 95% LTV mortgages since 2010, meaning even today, a first-time buyer could purchase a 3 bed semi in Stoke on Trent for around £120,000 and only need to find £6,000 deposit.  Yes, a lot of money, but first time buyers need to decide what is important to them.  Either save up for a couple of years to save the deposit and go without two annual foreign holidays, the full Satellite or Cable TV package with Sports and Movies costing three figures a month, the latest mobile phone and out socialising ... or not as the case maybe?

I think we as a Country have changed ... renting is returning to be the norm.  So my opinion is, landlords have it tough.  Let’s not blame them for the ‘perceived’ woes of the nation ... because to be frank … we haven’t always been a country of homeowners.  Roll the clock back to 1964, and nationally, 30% of people rented their home from a private landlord – today – its only 15.3% nationally.

If you are an existing landlord or someone thinking of become a first-time landlord looking for advice and opinion and what (or what not to buy in Stoke on Trent), one source of information is the Stoke on Trent Property Blog

‘Flipping’ Heck – Newcastle under Lyme and Stoke-on-Trent Property Values Rise by £15.10 a day

Investing in Stoke on Trent and Newcastle under Lyme buy to let property is different from investing in the stock market or depositing your hard-earned cash in the Building Society. When you invest your money in the Building Society, this is considered by many as the safe option but the returns you can achieve are awfully low (the best 2-year bond rate from Nationwide is a whopping 0.75% a year!). Another investment is the Stock Market, which can give good returns, but unless you are on the phone every day to your Stockbroker, most people invest in stock market funds, making the investment quite hands off and one always has the feeling of not being in control.

However, with buy to let, things can be more hands on. One of the things many landlords like is the tactile nature of property - the fact that you can touch the bricks and mortar. It is this factor that attracts many of Stoke on Trent’s landlords – they are making their own decisions rather than entrusting them to city whizz kids in Canary Wharf playing roulette with their savings.

I always say investing in property is a long-term game. When you invest in the property market, you can earn from your investment in two ways. When a property increases in value over time, it is known as 'capital growth'. Capital growth, also known as capital appreciation, has been getting a little better in recent times in Stoke on Trent, but the value of property does go up as well as down just like shares do but the initial purchase price rarely decreases.  Rental income is what the tenant pays you - hopefully this will also grow over time. If you divide the annual rent into the value (or purchase price) of the property, this is your yield, or annual return. So, over the last 5 years, an average local property has risen by £27,550 (equivalent to £15.10 a day), taking it to a current average value of £142,800. Yields range from 5% a year and can reach double digits’ percentages (although to achieve those sorts of returns, the risks are higher).

However, something I haven’t spoken of before is the more specialist area of flipping property to make money. (flipping - buying a property, carrying out some works and re selling it quickly).  I have seen several investors recently who have made decent returns from this strategy. For example …

• One Investor paid £110,000 for a 3 bed semi on Tean Road, Cheadle in May 2016. It appears some cosmetic work was done to the property and it was resold a few months ago (December 2016) for £130,000 … 18.18% return before costs (or compound annual return equivalent of 38.07% AER) http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=43808061&sale=89125371&country=england
   
• Another Newcastle under Lyme Investor flipped a lovely 2 bed bungalow on Rutherford Avenue, Newcastle, paying £135,000 in February 2016 and selling it again after some doing some cosmetic works, sold it for £168,500 a few months ago (November 2016) … 24.81% return before costs (or equivalent 31.19% AER) http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=54759691&sale=89127453&country=england
   
   

This demonstrates how the Stoke on Trent and Newcastle under Lyme property market can provided very strong returns for the average investor.

As my article mentioned a few weeks ago, more and more Stoke on Trent people may be giving up on owning their own home and are instead accepting long term renting whilst buy to let lending continues to grow from strength to strength. If you want to know what (and what would not) make a decent buy to let property in Stoke on Trent then please feel free to call us

How The Rented Sector Has Transformed The Property Market In Stoke-on-Trent

The Stoke-on-Trent housing market has gone through a sea change in the past decades with the Buy-to-Let (B-T-L) sector evolving as a key trend, for both Stoke-on-Trent tenants and Stoke-on-Trent landlords.

 

 

A few weeks ago, the Government released a White Paper on housing. I have had a chance now to digest the report and wish to offer my thoughts on the topic. It was interesting that the private rental sector played a major part in the future plans for housing. This is especially important for our  Stoke-on-Trent population.

 

In 1981, the population of Stoke-on-Trent stood at 252,300

and today it stands at 251,600.

 

Currently, the private rented (B-T-L) sector accounts for 13.7% of households in the city.  The Government want to assist people living in the houses and help the economy by encouraging the provision of quality homes, in a housing sector that has grown due to worldwide economic forces, pushing home ownership out of the reach of more and more people. Interestingly, when we look at the 1981 figures for homeownership, a different story is told.

 

56.44% Stoke-on-Trent people owned their own home in 1981

36% Stoke-on-Trent people rented from the Council or Housing Association in 1981

 and 7.56% Stoke-on-Trent rented from a Private Landlord               

 

The significance of a suitable housing policy is vital to ensure suitable economic activity and create a vibrant place people want to live in. With the population of Stoke-on-Trent set to grow to 267,000 by 2037 – it is imperative that Stoke-on-Trent City Council and Central Government all work actively together to ensure the residential property market doesn’t hold the area back, by encouraging the building and provision of quality homes for its inhabitants.

 

One idea the Government has proclaimed is a variety of measures aimed at encouraging the Build-to-Rent (B-T-R) sector (instead of the B-T-L sector). These include allowing local authorities to proactively plan for B-T-R schemes, and making it simpler for B-T-R developers to offer inexpensive private rented homes.

 

To do this, the government will invent a distinct affordable housing class for B-T-R, called ‘Affordable Private Rent’, which will oblige new homes builders to provide at least 1 in 5 of a new home developments at a 20% discount on open-market rents and three year tenancies for tenants. In return, the new homebuilders will get better planning assurances.

 

Private landlords will not be expected to offer discounts, nor offer 3-year tenancies – but it is something Stoke-on-Trent landlords need to be aware of as there will be greater competition for tenants.

 

Over the last ten years, home ownership has not been a primary goal for young adults as the world has changed. These youngsters expect ‘on demand’ services from click and collect, Amazon, Dating Apps and TV with the likes of Netflix. Many Stoke-on-Trent youngsters see that renting more than meets their accommodation needs, as it combines the freedom from a lifetime of property maintenance and financial obligations, making it an attractive lifestyle option.

Stoke-on-Trent’s ‘Generation Trapped’ and the £9.52bn legacy

Earlier this week I wrote an article on the plight of the Stoke-on-Trent 20 something’s often referred to by the press as ‘Generation Rent’. Attitudes to renting have certainly changed over the last twenty years and as my analysis suggested, this change is likely to be permanent. In the article, whilst a minority of this Generation Rent feel trapped, the majority don’t – making renting a choice not a predicament. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) predicted that the private rental sector is likely to grow substantially by 1.8m households across the UK in the next 8 years, with demand for rental property unlikely to slow and newly formed households continuing to choose the rental market as opposed to buying.

However, my real concern for Stoke-on-Trent homeowners and Stoke-on-Trent landlords alike, as I discussed a couple of months ago, is our mature members of the population of Stoke-on-Trent. In that previous article, I stated that the current OAP’s (65+ yrs in age) in Stoke-on-Trent were sitting on £4.22bn of residential property ... however, I didn’t talk in depth about the ‘Baby Boomers’, the 50yr to 64yr old Stoke-on-Trent people and what their properties are worth – and more importantly, how the current state of affairs could be holding back those younger Generation Renters.

In Stoke-on-Trent, there are 16,003 households whose owners are aged between 50yrs and 64yrs and about to pay their mortgage off. That property is worth, in today’s prices, £2.28bn. There are an additional 21,149 mortgage free Stoke-on-Trent households, owned by 50yr to 64yr olds, worth £3.01bn in today’s prices, meaning...

Stoke-on-Trent Baby Boomers and Stoke-on-Trent OAP’s are sitting

on £9.52bn worth of Stoke-on-Trent Property

These Stoke-on-Trent Baby Boomers and OAP’s are sitting on 66,748 Stoke-on-Trent properties and many of them feel trapped in their homes, and hence I have dubbed them ‘Generation Trapped’.

Recently, the English Housing Survey stated 49% of these properties owned by the Generation Trapped, as I have dubbed them, are ‘under-occupied’ (under-occupied classed as having at least two bedrooms more than needed). These houses could be better utilised by younger families, but research carried out by the Prudential suggest in Britain it’s estimated that only one in ten older people downsize while in the USA for example one in five do so.

The growing numbers of older homeowners who want to downsize their home are often put off by the difficulties of moving. The charity United for all Ages, suggested recently many are put off by the lack of housing options, 19% by the hassle and cost of moving, 14% by having to declutter their possessions and 14% by family reasons such as staying close to children and grandchildren.

Helping mature Stoke-on-Trent (and the Country) homeowners to downsize at the right time will also enable younger Stoke-on-Trent people to find the homes they need – meaning every generation wins, both young and old. However, to ensure downsizing works, as a Country, we need more choices for these ‘last time buyers’.

Theresa May and Philip Hammond can do their part and consider stamp duty tax breaks for downsizers, our local Council in Stoke-on-Trent and the Planning Dept. should play their part, as should landlords and property investors to ensure Stoke-on-Trent’s ‘Generation Trapped’ can find suitable property locally, close to friends, family and facilities.

‘Generation Rent (Forever)’ – 14,115 Stoke on Trent Tenants have no intention of ever buying a property to call home

The good old days of the 1970’s and 1980’s eh … with such highlights lowlights as 24% inflation, 17% interest rates, 3 day working week, 13% unemployment, power cuts ... those were the days (not)… but at least people could afford to buy their own home. So why aren’t the 20 and 30 something’s buying in the same numbers as they were 30 or 40 years ago?

Many people blame the credit crunch and global recession of 2008, which had an enormous impact on the Stoke on Trent (and UK) housing market. Predominantly, the 20 something first-time buyers who, confronting a problematic mortgage market, the perceived need for big deposits, reduced job security and declining disposable income, discovered it challenging to assemble the monetary means to get on to the Stoke on Trent property ladder.

However, I would say there has been something else at play other than the issue of raising a deposit - having sufficient income and rising property prices in Stoke on Trent. Whilst these are important factors and barriers to homeownership, I also believe there has been a generational change in attitudes towards home ownership in Stoke on Trent (and in fact the rest of the Country).

Back in 2011, the Halifax did a survey of thousands of tenants and 19% of tenants said they had no plans to buy a home for themselves. A recent, almost identical survey of tenants, carried out by The Deposit Protection Service revealed, in late 2016, that figure had risen to 38.4%, with many no-longer equating home ownership to success and believing renting to be better suited to their lifestyle.

You see, I believe renting is a fundamental part of the housing sector, and a meaningful proportion of the younger adult members of the Stoke on Trent population choose to be tenants as it better suits their plans and lifestyle. Local Government in Stoke on Trent (including the planners – especially the planners), land owners and landlords need an adaptable Stoke on Trent residential property sector that allows the diverse choices of these Stoke on Trent 20 and 30 year olds to be met.

This means, if we applied the same percentages to the current 36,757 Stoke on Trent tenants in their 16,020 private rental properties, 14,115 tenants have no plans to ever buy a property – good news for the landlords of those 6,152 properties. Interestingly, in the same report, just under two thirds (62%) of tenants said they didn’t expect to buy within the next year.

.. but does that mean the other third will be buying in Stoke on Trent in the next 12 months?

Some will, but most won’t … in fact, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) predicts that, by 2025, that the number of people renting will increase, not drop. Yes, many tenants might hope to buy but the reality is different for the reasons set out above.  The RICS predicts the number of tenants looking to rent will increase by 1.8 million households by 2025, as rising house prices continue to make home ownership increasingly unaffordable for younger generations.  So, if we applied this rise to Stoke on Trent, we will in fact need an additional 6,866 private rental properties over the next eight years (or 858 a year) … meaning the number of private rented properties in Stoke on Trent is projected to rise to an eye watering 22,886 households.