9.69 Babies Born for Each New Home Built in the Stoke on Trent area

As more babies are being born to Stoke on Trent mothers, I believe this increase will continue to add pressure to the over stretched Stoke on Trent property market and materially affect the local property market in the years to come.

On the back of eight years of ever incremental increasing birth rates, a significant 9.69 babies were born for every new home that was built in the Stoke on Trent council area in 2016.  I believe this has and will continue to exacerbate the Stoke on Trent housing shortage, meaning demand for housing, be it to buy or rent, has remained high.  The high birth rate has meant Stoke on Trent rents and Stoke on Trent property prices have remained resilient – even with the challenges the economy has felt over the last eight years, and they will continue to remain so in the years to come.

This ratio of births to new homes has reach one its highest levels since 1945 (back in the early 1970’s the average was only one and a half births for every household built).  Looking at the local birth rates, the latest figures show we in the Stoke on Trent council area had an average of 69 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44.  Interestingly, the national average is 61.7 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 and for the region its 63.9 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44.

The number of births from Stoke on Trent women between the ages of 20 to 29 are significantly higher than the national average, but those between 35 and 44 were much lower.  However overall, the birth rate is still increasing, and when that fact is combined with the ever-increasing life expectancy in the Stoke on Trent area, the high levels of net migration into the area over the last 14 years (which I talked about in the previous articles) and the higher predominance of single person households … this can only mean one thing ... a huge increase in the need for housing in Stoke on Trent.

Again, in a previous article a while back, I said more and more people are having children as tenants because they feel safe in rented accommodation.  Renting is becoming a choice for Stoke on Trent people.

The planners and Politian’s of our local authority, central Government and people as a whole need to recognise that with individuals living longer, people having more children and whilst divorce rates have dropped recently, they are still at a relatively high level (meaning one household becomes two households) ... demand for property is simply outstripping supply.

The simple fact is more Stoke on Trent properties need to be built

… be that for buying or renting.

Only 1.1% of the Country is built on by houses.  Now I am not suggesting we build apartment blocks in the middle of the Cotswolds, but the obsession of not building on any green belt land should be carefully re-considered.

Yes, we need to build on brownfield sites first, but there aren’t hundreds of acres of brownfield sites in Stoke on Trent, and what brownfield sites there are, building on them can only work with complementary public investment.  Many such sites are contaminated and aren’t financially viable to develop, so unless the Government put their hand in their pocket, they will never be built on.

I am not saying we should crudely go ‘hell for leather’ building on our Green Belt, but we need a new approach to enable some parts of the countryside to be regarded more positively by local authorities, politicians and communities and allow considered and empathetic development.  Society in the UK needs to look at the green belts outside their leisure and visual appeal, and assess how they can help to shape the way we live in the most even-handed way.  Interesting times!

What will the General Election do to 72,123 Stoke-on-Trent Homeowners?

In Stoke-on-Trent, of the 116,820 households, 35,475 homes are owned without a mortgage and 36,648 homes are owned by a mortgage. Many homeowners have made contact me with asking what the General Election will do the Stoke-on-Trent property market?  The best way to tell the future is to look at the past.

I have looked over the last five general elections and analysed in detail what happened to the property market on the lead up to and after each general election. Some very interesting information has come to light.

Of the last five general elections (1997, 2001, 2005, 2010 and 2015), the two elections that weren’t certain were the last two (2010 with the collation and 2015 with unexpected Tory majority). Therefore, I wanted to compare what happened in 1997, 2001 and 2005 when Tony Blair was guaranteed to be elected/re-elected versus the last knife edge uncertain votes of 2010 and 2015 ... in terms of the number of houses sold and the prices achieved.

Look at the first graph below comparing the number of properties sold and the dates of the general elections

 

It is clear, looking at the number of monthly transactions (the blue line), there is a certain rhythm or seasonality to the housing market. That rhythm/seasonality has never changed since 1995 (seasonality meaning the periodic fluctuations that occur regularly based on a season - i.e. you can see how the number of properties sold dips around Christmas, rises in Spring and Summer and drops again at the end of the year).

To remove that seasonality, I have introduced the red line. The red line is a 12 month ‘moving average’ trend line which enables us to look at the ‘de-seasonalised’ housing transaction numbers, whilst the yellow arrows denote the times of the general elections. It is clear to see that after the 1997, 2001 and 2005 elections, there was significant uplift in number of households sold, whilst in 2010 and 2015, there was slight drop in house transactions (i.e. number of properties sold).

Next, I wanted to consider what happened to property prices. In the graph below, I have used that same 12-month average, housing transactions numbers (in red) and yellow arrows for the dates of the general elections but this time compared that to what happened to property values (pink line).

It is quite clear none of the general elections had any effect on the property values.  Also, the timescales between the calling of the election and the date itself also means that any property buyer’s indecisiveness and indecision before the election will have less of an impact on the market.

 
So finally, what does this mean for the landlords of the 16,020 private rented properties in Stoke-on-Trent? Well, as I have discussed in previous articles (and just as relevant for homeowners as well) property value growth in Stoke-on-Trent will be more subdued in the coming few years for reasons other than the general election. The growth of rents has taken a slight hit in the last few months as there has been a slight over supply of rental property in Stoke-on-Trent, making it imperative that Stoke-on-Trent landlords are realistic with their market rents. But, in the long term, as the younger generation still choose to rent rather than buy ... the prospects, even with the changes in taxation, mean investing in buy-to-let still looks a good bet