Stoke on
Trent house prices up or Stoke on Trent house prices down? ... and if so, by
how much? Those of you who read the Stoke on Trent Property Blog will know I am
not the sort of person who pulls punches nor someone who ever fails to give a
forthright and straight talking opinion – so here are my thoughts for the 72,123
Stoke on Trent homeowners and landlords.
The average Stoke
on Trent property is 5.5% higher today than it was a year ago, which doesn’t
sound a lot, but when you consider inflation is currently running at -0.1% (ie consumer/retail prices are dropping)
and average salary growth is only around 2.5% pa, this is bad news for first
time buyers as property affordability continues to decrease (although I was
reading in The Times the other day that wage inflation (ie salary growth) is showing signs of weakening).
Some
commentators have said the higher stamp duty taxes announced a few weeks ago in
the Autumn Statement for buy to let landlords, concerns over first time buyer affordability
and the outlook of UK interest rate rises in 2016 will really dampen the
property market. I hope you all read my previous article about what the new
stamp duty rule changes would REALLY mean for Stoke on Trent landlords in my
blog, but I believe the real issue in the Stoke on Trent property market is the
shortage of property to buy, as people either worry there will be no suitable
house to move to, or cannot afford to upgrade. However, on the supply side, Mr
Osborne said in his Autumn Statement that he will change the planning laws to
ensure the government meets the pledge made at the General Election (back in
May) of 200,000 new homes a year. All I
can say is .. good luck George hitting those numbers!
Why? Because houses take years to build .. not months .. so George
and his fabled house building aside .... where does that leave us in Stoke on
Trent in 2016?
Well, talking of supply ... whilst Mr Osborne builds his
properties (and let’s be honest - a week doesn’t go by without him being filmed
on a building site with a high viz jacket and hard hat building a house here
and there!), let us look at the shortage of properties for sale. Back in October
2011, 2,333 properties were for sale in Stoke on Trent .. today that figure is 1,194.
On the face of it, this means there is less choice for Stoke on Trent buyers –
but it also means with a restricted supply of properties for sale .. it keeps
property prices high for Stoke on Trent house sellers.
Everything isn’t all doom and gloom though ... again back in
October 2011, the average property in Stoke on Trent took 138 days to find a
buyer .. latest figures state this has dropped to 97 days .. a drop of 30% in
how long it takes to find a buyer. However, when you delve even deeper, the
best performing type of property today in Stoke on Trent is the 1 bed, which
only takes 81 days to find a buyer (on average) compared to the 4 bed, which
takes 112 days. It just goes to show, even though the average has dropped since
2011, how varied that change has been!
So,
back to the question everyone is asking .... What will happen to property values
in Stoke on Trent in 2016? I am
going to suggest they will rise between 4% and 5% ... nothing out of the
ordinary, but unless something cataclysmic happens in the world, 2016 will be
like 2015!
