Tuesday, 6 February 2018

My thoughts on the future of the Stoke on Trent Buy-To-Let Market



I was recently reading a report by the Home website which suggested that hordes of landlords are selling their buy-to-let investments due to increasing burdens on them in the buy-to-let market. Their findings suggest the number of new properties that came onto the market nationally (for sale) jumped by 11% across the UK as a result.
Those increasing burdens include new tax rules coming in over the next 3 to 4 years and the announcement that all self-managing landlords (i.e. landlords that don’t use a letting agent to look after their buy-to-let property) will soon need to register with a compulsory redress scheme to resolve tenant arguments and disputes; as Westminster wants to heighten standards in the Private Rented Sector. 
Interestingly I was chatting with a self-managed landlord from Endon, when I was out socially over the festive period, who didn’t realise the other recent legislations that have hit the Private Rented sector, including the ‘Right to Rent’ regulations which came in to operation last year. Landlords have to certify their tenants have the legal right to live in the UK. This includes checking and taking copies of their tenant’s passport or visa before the tenancy is signed. Of course, if you use a letting agent to manage your property, they will usually sort this for you (as they will with the redress scheme when that is implemented).
If you are a self-managed landlord though, the consequences are severe because if you let a property to a tenant who is living in the UK illegally, you will be fined up to £3,000. That same Endon landlord popped into my offices in the New Year, and I checked all his paperwork and ensured he was on the right side of the law going forward – and I offer the same to any landlord in the Stoke on Trent area if you want me to cast my eye over your buy to let matters, no cost, maybe just some chocolates for the girls in the office! 
But what of all these extra properties being dumped onto the market in Stoke on Trent? When I looked at the records the number of properties on the market in Stoke on Trent now, as opposed to a year ago, the numbers tell an interesting story …

 
1st Jan 2017
1st Jan 2018
 
Detached
125
103
-18%
Semi
312
265
-15%
Terraced
435
326
-25%
Flat
162
144
-11%
Plots +
Other
126
49
-61%
Total
1160
887
-24%
                                                                  
                      
 

Overall, Stoke on Trent doesn’t match the national trend, with the number of properties on the market actually dropping by 24% in the last year.  It was particularly interesting to see the number of terraced decrease by 25% and the number of detached on the market drop by 18%.
However, speaking with my team and other property professionals in the city, the majority of that movement in the number of properties and the types of properties on the market isn’t down to landlords dumping their properties on the market. The whole property market has changed in the last 12 months, with the majority of the change in the number and type of properties for sale due to the owner-occupier market, not landlords (a subject I will write about soon in my Stoke on Trent Property Market blog later this Spring?). You see, for the last ten years, each month there has always been a small number of Stoke on Trent landlords who have been releasing their monies from their Stoke on Trent buy to let properties - as is the nature of all investments!
Nationally, the number of rental properties coming on to the market to rent fell by 16% in Q4 2017 compared to Q4 2016 .. but that isn’t because there are 16% less rental properties to rent – it’s because tenants are staying in their rental properties longer meaning less are coming on the market to be RE-LET.
Nevertheless, some Stoke on Trent landlords will want to release the equity held in their Stoke on Trent buy to let properties in 2018. All I suggest is that you speak with your letting agent first, as putting a rental property on the open market often spooks the tenants to hand in their notice days after you put it on the market (because they don’t like the uncertainty and also believe they will become homeless!). This means you have an empty property, costing you money with no rent coming in.  However, some letting agents who specialise in portfolio management have select lists of landlords that will buy with sitting tenants in. If you have a portfolio in the Stoke on Trent area and are considering selling some or all of them – drop me a line as I might have a portfolio landlord for you (with the peace of mind that you won’t have any rental voids).


Saturday, 3 February 2018

Stoke-on-Trent Rents Set to Rise to £557 pm in Next 5 Years

It’s now been a good 12/18 months since annual rental price inflation in Stoke-on-Trent peaked at 3.9%. Since then we have seen increasingly more humble rent increases. In fact, in certain parts of the Stoke-on-Trent rental market over the autumn, the rental market saw some slight falls in rents. So, could this be the earliest indication that the trend of high rent increases seen over the last few years, may now be starting to buck that trend?

Well, possibly in the short term, but in the coming few years, it is my opinion Stoke-on-Trent rents will regain their upward trend and continue to increase as demand for Stoke-on-Trent rental property will outstrip supply, and this is why.

The only counterbalance to that improved rental growth would be to meaningfully increase rental stock (i.e. the number of rental properties in Stoke-on-Trent). However, because of the Government’s new taxes on landlords being introduced between 2017 and 2021, that means buy-to-let has (and will) be less attractive in the short term for certain types of landlords (meaning less new properties will be bought to let out).

Interestingly, countless market experts assumed at the start of 2017, that the number of rental properties would in fact drop throughout the year. The assumption being as the new tax rules for landlords started to kick in, landlords looked to kick their tenants out, sell up and invest their capital elsewhere. (Although ironically that would lower supply of rental properties, decreasing the supply, meaning rents would increase again!).

Anecdotal evidence suggests, confirmed by my discussions with fellow property, accountancy and banking professionals in Stoke-on-Trent, that Stoke-on-Trent landlords are (instead of selling up on masse), actually either (1) re-mortgaging their Stoke-on-Trent buy-to-let properties instead or (2) converting their rental portfolios into limited companies to side step the new taxation rules.

The sentiment of many Stoke-on-Trent landlords is that property has always weathered the many stock market crashes and runs in the last 50 years. There is something inheritably understandable about bricks and mortar – compared to the voodoo magic of the stock market and other exotic investment vehicles like debentures and crypto-currency (e.g. BitCoin). 

Remarkably, there is some good news for tenants, as Tory’s recently published the draft Tenants’ Fee Bill, which is designed to prohibit the charging of tenants lettings fees on set up of the tenancy. However, looking at evidence in Scotland, I expect rents to rise to compensate landlords, thus hammering faithful tenants looking for long-term tenancy agreements the hardest. This growth will be on top of any usual organic rent growth.  It really is swings and roundabouts!

So, what does this all mean for landlords and tenants in Stoke-on-Trent? In my considered opinion,

Rents in Stoke-on-Trent over the next 5 years will rise by 10.4%, taking the average rent for a Stoke-on-Trent property from £505 per month to £557 per month.

 To put all that into perspective though, rents in Stoke-on-Trent over the last 12 years have risen by 19.3%. In fact, that rise won’t be a straight-line growth either, because I have to take into account the national and local Stoke-on-Trent economy, demand and supply of rental property, interest rates, Brexit and other external factors. Please see the graph for my projections


In the past, making money from Stoke-on-Trent buy-to-let property was as easy as falling off a log. But with these new tax rules, new rental regulations and the overall changing dynamics of the Stoke-on-Trent property market, as a Stoke-on-Trent landlord, you are going to need work smarter and have every piece of information, advice and opinion to hand on the Stoke-on-Trent, Regional and National property market’s, to enable you to continue to make money.